The 2010 General Election

Any predictions in terms of the number of seats likely to be won by each of the three main parties?

A House of Lords memento for the reader who comes closest.


About Lord Norton

Professor of Government at Hull University, and Member of the House of Lords
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28 Responses to The 2010 General Election

  1. Frank W. Summers III says:

    Conservatives: 258
    Labor: 260
    Liberal Democrats: 75

    Conservative LDP coallition for two and a half years.

    I expect I may be completely wrong as I have no polling data at all and am judging from anectdotes AND SPEECHES ONLY. However, I had to play…

  2. Lord Norton says:

    Frank W. Summers III: You can at least claim that so far you are the closest!

    • Frank W. Summers III says:

      Lord Norton,

      Indeed I have that claim at the time of posting. I will be checking the internet for the exit polls at London 10:00 p.m. if I can.

  3. C:320

    this is such a close election though i fully expect that i could be wrong in almost evey way though

  4. Carl.H says:



    LD: 140

    Incidently my 3 daughters know every leader which is a first and young people have very firm opinions, though not necessarily educated. My 9 year old say`s Dave cos he`s cool, Gordon is too grumpy and Nick is gay (though not in a homosexual way), it means sad, no good, geeky.

    I won`t say which the others preferred.

    No hung house here !

  5. FinnishCowl says:

    Conservatives: 307
    Labour: 233
    Liberal Democrats: 83
    Other: 27

  6. Jonathan says:

    A not-so-educated guess:

    Con: 287
    Lab: 260
    LD: 75

  7. Chris K says:

    340 Con (inc Con-UUP) (inc. delayed Thursk)

    210 Labour

    82 LibDem

    18 others

  8. Len says:

    Con: 305
    Lab: 199
    LD: 120

    A complete guess, but it would be interesting to see how the regional and small parties would react to a situation like this.

  9. ladytizzy says:

    Conservatives: 305
    Labour: 236
    LibDems: 76
    Others: 33

  10. Carl.H says:

    Well I`ve been and done, they`re saying it`s been a steady stream so far so turn out may be quite good.

  11. Croft says:

    Some very creative predictions there. Personally I’m expecting the Tories to be slightly short of a government majority in the 290-300 range.

    For those so inclined the best site is easily Try their swingometer.

  12. David Rostron says:

    Labour 254
    Conservatives 248
    Liberals 84
    Others 64

  13. James Walker says:

    Labour 252
    Conservative 310
    Liberals: 75
    Other: 12
    Postponed Malton &Thirsk: 1

  14. Guy Jackson says:

    Consrvative: 330
    Labour: 204
    Liberal Democrat: 87
    Other: 29

  15. Carl.H says:

    Polling stations unable to cope and people turned away in the UK is unacceptable, anyone would think we`re a third world country.

    This has to be looked at very closely, it is unbelievable.

    I understand their were problems in Nick Cleggs constituency too.

    From the BBC

    “Kathy Murray writes: Manchester City council have obviously underestimated its people. 1 person handing out ballot papers for Manchester Withington. I’m disgusted! We live round the corner from the polling station. We went at 1800 – it was too busy we went back an hour later – still big queues. We went back at 2100 but still couldn’t vote. I estimate 200 were turned away. In 2005 there were more polling stations open.”

    “Police officers at a polling station in Brockley in Lewisham, south-east London, tell a BBC camera crew that voters are still being allowed to vote at 10.30pm. But the returning officer for Sheffield is apologising after people were unable to cast their votes there because of huge queues at polling stations. John Mothersole admits they were caught out.”

    “Very confusing situation about what happens to those still queuing to vote at 10pm. According to the Birmingham City Council website: “You can process votes if people are in the polling station before the poll closes. We understand there were two ‘lock-ins’ in Birmingham. More details when we get them.”

    ” Police have been called to some polling stations to move on people who wanted to vote but couldn’t because they were still queuing outside at 10pm. In the Manchester Withington constituency, about 200 people were turned away. A spokesman for the returning officer for Manchester said: “The law states that the doors to polling stations must be closed at 10pm exactly, and no-one may be issued with a ballot paper after 10pm.”

  16. Frank W. Summers III says:

    Lord Norton,

    Final results are not in and I truly venerate the formalities in electoral matters. Once they are in negotiations appear to be necessary. However, it appears your party has won a plurality in the lower house and it seems beyond all doubt that your party has greatly improved its position over the seats held before the election. I wish to extend to you as a senior statesman my congratulations on your success in that body to which you have given much good service. Regardless of the events which may follow, you have reason to celebrate a significant achievement.

  17. Carl.H says:

    Of the 28 million votes, 1/2 million voted BNP…..Do we really want PR ?

    • Croft says:

      Either you are for PR for the reasons advanced in its favour or you are for another system. I don’t see you can have a principled argument that rests on not liking the people the electorate choose.

      Of course many PR systems do block small parties which is fairly contemptible if you believe in PR. The threshold is typically >~5% which would block the BNP and every other party but the big three (at least on the preliminary figures for this election.) UKIP at 3.1% are the closest to the ‘5% ‘

  18. Carl.H says:

    “I don’t see you can have a principled argument that rests on not liking the people the electorate choose.”

    Of course I can, Adolph was voted in and on principle…… but that`s me. No matter what the crowd thinks I don`t just follow. I don`t believe you would either Croft, we`re far too outspoken and opinionated.

    I`m glad to hear 5% would be set as minimum but would that be Countrywide or local area`s ? If local some BNP would have got in, if Countrywide parties like Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, SNP etc., wouldn`t get in.

    • Croft says:

      That may be true but ‘I don’t like it’ while a natural reaction is not a principled argument πŸ˜€ On the 5% (all assuming that was chosen) it would be have to be national not local.

  19. Lord Norton says:

    Thanks for all the entries. I hasten to add that – as we now have the results from all the constituencies (bar Thirsk and Malton where the poll is delayed) – the competition is closed!

    As will be apparent, everyone over-estimated the figure for the Liberal Democrats, all of you assuming they would do better than in 2005.

    We do, though, have a winner. The reader who came closest is James Walker. Congratulations. I will be in touch regarding your prize.

    Jonathan is second and ladytizzy is third. Commendations to both of them.

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