Any guesses?

Any guesses as to what the turnout will be in the referendum on 5 May?  I may offer a prize if any reader gets it more or less spot on…

About Lord Norton

Professor of Government at Hull University, and Member of the House of Lords
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20 Responses to Any guesses?

  1. Craig Prescott says:


  2. franksummers3ba says:

    With a surprising 59% near Hull…

  3. David Rostron says:


  4. ladytizzy says:


  5. Edward Brunsdon says:

    Scotland 50%
    Wales 45%
    NI 60%
    England abt 35% where there is local election
    about 18% where no election (london / cornwall)

    So going to say 31%

    I also predict the YES % in each district will be negatively correlated with the combined CON+LAB vote obtained at the 2010 election.

  6. ladytizzy says:

    Either nobody has a clue or one of us does…

  7. David Morris says:


    It definitely won’t be above 50% because there is still a great deal of apathy and sections of the population still don’t trust politicians.

  8. Alice Stretch says:

    I’m unsure what it would be in percentage but 2 people: Cameron and Clegg.

  9. Andrew Allison says:

    As there are elections in most of the UK, the turnout will be higher than it would have been. Taking into account the turnout in local elections in Hull are paltry (around 35%), and not all that higher elsewhere, I can’t see the overall turnout in the country being any more than 35%. In places like London where there aren’t local elections, it could easily be as low as 20%

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