Any guesses as to what the turnout will be in the referendum on 5 May? I may offer a prize if any reader gets it more or less spot on…
With a surprising 59% near Hull…
England abt 35% where there is local election
about 18% where no election (london / cornwall)
So going to say 31%
I also predict the YES % in each district will be negatively correlated with the combined CON+LAB vote obtained at the 2010 election.
Edward Brunsdon: Have you been thinking about this?
I have – was a good comment made this week, by your colleague Lord Forsyth about the risk of it going through due to a differential turnout, with a likely yes vote in Scotland.
Sound man, Lord Forsyth.
Either nobody has a clue or one of us does…
ladytizzy: If you ask the question again in three weeks…
It definitely won’t be above 50% because there is still a great deal of apathy and sections of the population still don’t trust politicians.
I’m unsure what it would be in percentage but 2 people: Cameron and Clegg.
Alice Stretch: I must check what the Act provides for in the event of a tied vote…
As there are elections in most of the UK, the turnout will be higher than it would have been. Taking into account the turnout in local elections in Hull are paltry (around 35%), and not all that higher elsewhere, I can’t see the overall turnout in the country being any more than 35%. In places like London where there aren’t local elections, it could easily be as low as 20%
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