Who will win?

The speaker at the Political Studies Association annual dinner last night was Tony Wright, former MP and Chair of the Public Administration Select Committee.  During his talk, he asked for a show of hands of those who would be voting yes in the AV referendum and those who would be voting no.  More voted for yes than no, but as he noted most of those present did not express an opinion.  

He then asked how many people thought the ‘yes’ campaign would win.  Not a single hand was raised.

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About Lord Norton

Professor of Government at Hull University, and Member of the House of Lords
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14 Responses to Who will win?

  1. Carl.H says:

    I don’t think it’s an easy call, I think it’ll be very much on the day a lot of people will make up their minds.

  2. Chris K says:

    I just wish I’d put a tenner on back when the odds were evens.

    I’m confident the public will make the right decision.

  3. franksummers3ba says:

    Lord Norton.

    How many raised their hands when he asked if they thought that:
    1. AV would lose,
    2.AV would win,
    3.AV and the status quo would be hopelessly deadlocked,
    4.The election would not in fact be held
    — were there a fair number of those thinking that thought?

    • Lord Norton says:

      franksummers3ba: It wasn’t that long a speech!

      The referendum is already under way in that postal ballot papers have already been sent out.

      • Frank W. Summers III says:

        Lord Norton,

        So any who were thinking it have already dropped to the first three opportunities to be right…

  4. Dave H says:

    I seem to be on a “yes vote” mailing list. I originally expressed support for holding a referendum because certain things need to be done to clear the air, but things carried on after that. It’s been amusing to read some of the stuff – they’re calling for donations and thanking me for my incredible support.

    Ah well, if my level of support is that good then they’re doomed.

    The only thing I’ll say about both FPTP and AV is that they’re infinitely better than the abominable party list system we’re stuck with for European elections. I’d support a vote to change that (although preferably to not having to bother with electing MEPs because we’re no longer part of the EU).

  5. Carl.H says:

    At a time of Tory dislike amongst the populace this :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13174645

    Is a concern, not only that, it is underhand and nothing whatsoever to do with AV. It is an attempt at manipulation of Government dislike. Cable who sits in Government with the Conservative party is stating his disdain for the party. He is stating the Conservatives got into Government on a majority of occassions without a majority vote, so how exactly are the Lib-Dems there now ?

    Vince Cable wants AV to secure a Government position for his party based on really minority results by way of coalition blackmail or bribery. Even based on what he says AV will result in more minority vote Governments without a sincere manifesto as they become parts of cross party deals.

    The anti-conservative rhetoric by Vince Cable and other Lib-Dems in a matter of AV, which is supposedly not about parties, is a betrayal of the Government in which he sits.

  6. Carl.H says:

    Asked if he was referring to the prime minister, Mr Clegg responded: “Look, I include all those, and of course it includes the Conservative Party, who like this nice little racket: they get a job for life and they waft into power and they don’t even need to bother try to get a majority of people on side.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13179772

    Wafting into power without a majority ? Isn’t that exactly how the Lib-dems are there now and what they intend AV to be used for ?

    A racket ? Isn’t that referring to dishonesty or criminal ? Is the Deputy PM accusing the PM of dishonesty, surely this is a vote of no confidence ?

  7. Frank W. Summers III says:

    Happy Easter! Lord Norton and fellow commenters….

    Also a worthy Spring to any all and happy Passover, where appropriate. There is more than embarassing Yank(my ancestors are cursing me in the afterlife for using that term of myself) emotional nakedness in these seasonal greetings. The idea of dates brings us to the wedding nicely enough.

    Lord Norton, you mentioned the Olympics once, although somewhat begrdudgingly. Will you not indulge us in the foreign lands with a few words from a Westminsterite about the comings and goings there this week?

    • Frank W. Summers III says:

      This is over ten minutes long and one has to watch four minutes almost before reaching the Middletons in it but this gives some idea of the Middleton name’s importance in American history…

  8. Frank W. Summers III says:

    Sorry about the delay — not sure what happened….

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