Referendum turnout

The turnout in the AV referendum was 41.8%, notably higher than many had expected. 

Of those who in my earlier post had a guess as to the turnout, Peta wins the prize having opted for 42%.  Charlesbarry comes a close second with 41%.  Congratulations to both of them.  Some guesses were rather off the mark!

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About Lord Norton

Professor of Government at Hull University, and Member of the House of Lords
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18 Responses to Referendum turnout

  1. Carl.H says:

    Any insider trading on the result ?

    Though the beeb tends to think a resounding “no”.

  2. Carl.H says:

    Yayyy well done, common sense has prevailed. I have just read about the 70% on the bbc.

    Professor John Curtice said it looked as though the eventual No lead will be of the order of 70% to 30% and although there are still lots of results to come the No campaign could “confidently look forward to success”.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13297573

    I won’t gloat..Oh ok just a little on Lord Knights blog perhaps. 😉

  3. michael says:

    Today, the British people confirmed, indeed, that they are forming this polity in the world with the most interest in politics; a polity of people who are well informed and clear in political opinion even if the media and campaigners trying hard to move the folk into a misleading direction by bias.
    Nothing contrariwise was to expect – very well done and congratulations to the voters and all their unresting and absolute excellent teachers.
    Cheers!
    Michael

  4. Carl.H says:

    Should we be concerned about the SNP victories in terms of the United Kingdom ?

  5. Jonathan says:

    There were lots of mentions this evening of an elected upper chamber being next on the Lib Dems’ programme of constitutional reform. In many ways, this is a far bigger change than making a relatively minor (although completely unnecessary) tweak to the way MPs are elected. Why is it then that we get to vote on AV, and not on House of Lords reform?

    • Lord Norton says:

      Jonthan: Quite so. Some media, though, are now reporting that Conservative ministers have gone cold on pursuing Lords reform. It would be difficult for the Government to argue the logic of your argument.

  6. Frank W. Summers III says:

    Lord Norton,

    Of course the 11.2% variance downward from my guess is mostly the 11.1% of the electorate who stayed home out of concern about terrorist acts related to the unforseen bin Laden killing. The other .1% was an inflated guess. However the bit about Hull at 59% — now there was a plain error I see.

  7. michael says:

    the Scotland question (Carl.H):
    from my point of view the three ‘M’ would prevent fundamental constitutional changes regarding the position of the Scotts within the UK:
    M – Maastricht (treaty)
    M – Monarchy (unity)
    M – Money (cupidity)

    Therefore, there might be a referendum but this would show an indeed closer but nevertheless similar result like the AV-referendum; there is no majority for separation in Scotland I think; there is a majority for a self-reliant living of Scottish culture in a very broad sense – which leads into the middle of the topic of the Norton Lecture 2011 at Hull University as I’ve got it: re-thinking Britishness and Englishness in order to stabilise the unity of the UK.
    Insofar, the NI-issue seems to be far more pressing. Nevertheless, there is a movement and there is a aim for political pressure with the need of paying attention – overwise the tail wags the dog.

    However, I’m more concerned by the situation of the Conservatives in Scotland. For, a left wing standing of nearly a whole nation (as Labour, LibDem and SNP shares some fundamental socialist principles in my understanding – even if this could be critised easily of being abbreviated) lacks the necessary broadness of political discussion within the polity.
    Overcoming the ‘traditional’ Scottih view ‘voting for Conservatives – you just can’t do that’ should start with new political front-men and -women who are both, confident and competent as well as responsive to the people and performing as workaholics in respect of meeting ‘normal’ people. And it needs to explain the faithful and trustworthy social attitudes and, thus, policies of Conservatives describable by the relsted terms of solidarity and subsidiarity based on a love of all human being which, in my view, lies in the heart of conservative behaviour.
    ‘as there was no much this week’ – have a relaxed weekend (with eating and not marking)

    • Lord Norton says:

      michael: I think you make an extremely pertinent point about the position of the Conservatives in Scotland. It something I have also been wrestling with.

  8. Peta says:

    Thank you Lord Norton. I rarely win anything so this is a plesant surprise.

    • Carl.H says:

      Yes ongratulations Peta, I hope you have a ticket also for the lottery tonight and the same luck ensues.

      • Lord Norton says:

        Peta: I think what Carl.H is asking is if you have a particular technique for coming up with winning numbers and, if so, would you be willing to share….

  9. Peta says:

    I am a great fan of sticking a pin in the list of runners and riders. Otherwise I just think of a number. I rarely win so cannot really endorse these techniques.

    • Carl.H says:

      I have tried the sticking the pin in method and must admit it worked quite well at the last election, although the effigy of Gordon was becoming a little threadbare. 😉

      Very rarely do I buy a ticket, gambling is a strong addiction to shake and the more deprived and desperate people are, the more they appear to gamble.

      • Peta says:

        @Carl H – Poor Gordon, all those pins! I agree with you about gambling, it can be a terrible addiction. When I was 18 my father took me to a casino and after dinner sat me at a roulette table, gave me £100 (more money than I had ever seen before) and told me not to get up until I had lost the lot. I started to win – very thrilling, and then to loose – not very thrilling at all. I sat at the table for over 2 hours until my mission was accomplished to my father’s satisfaction. I came away thinking gambling was a complete waste of time. . . . . However I have to admit to a certain pleasure at predicting the turnout correctly. Did someone say there was a prize. . . 😉 ?

      • Lord Norton says:

        Peta: Ah yes, a prize. Quite right. I shall get on to it.

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